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Pump or Dump: July ADP Review



Once July arrives, the masses are being hit by the Fantasy Football bug. For degenerates like me, Fantasy Football has been going strong since before the NFL Draft in April. After drafting 50+ teams so far this season, I have seen a few different versions of draft boards so far. Here are a few of the players I feel are being overvalued and undervalued so far this Fantasy season based on Underdog Fantasy’s .5 PPR ADP.


QB

Pump – Dak Prescott, DAL

Underdog ADP: QB12

DH Ranking: QB8



I am of the belief there is a tier drop from the top 7 QBs to the rest of the QBs in fantasy this season. I currently have Dak Prescott at QB8, and like his ADP the best out of the rest of the QB1s. He finished as QB2 in PPG in 2019, QB1 in PPG in 2020 (prior to his foot injury), and QB7 in 2021. I believe the sentiment that they will pass less in 2023 after the departure of Kellen Moore has been overblown. The addition of Brandin Cooks and departure and Ezekiel Elliott (as of now) will lead to more passing TDs and more rushing for Dak. Give me 9th round Dak all day!


Dump – Trevor Lawrence, JAC

Underdog ADP: QB8

DH Ranking: QB10



Trevor Lawrence saw a big jump from his rookie to sophomore year, in real football and fantasy, thanks to the Jaguars getting a competent coach. I expect a jump in production this season as well, but not enough to boost him to QB8. I also don’t support him being drafted in the 6th round. I’m lower on his pass catching weapons than the masses as well, particularly Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram. Unless his ADP drops, I am fine being underweight on Lawrence in 2023.


RB

Pump – James Conner, ARI

Underdog ADP: RB28

DH Ranking: RB17



If you are a fan of RBs, you might want to hop into some bestball drafts today because the value you can get on starting RBs is insane. James Conner is being criminally underrated right now in drafts. He has finished in the top 10 in PPG the past 2 seasons, but currently has an ADP of RB28 in round 8. All the talk about the Cardinals being a terrible team will not stop James Conner being a top 12 QB in every analyst’s week 1 rankings come this September. Grab that RB value before it’s too late.


Dump – Breece Hall, NYJ

Underdog ADP: RB11

DH Ranking: RB21



Breece Hall showed how talented he was in the 8 games he played last season, finishing RB7 in PPG in 2022. Had he not suffered a torn ACL, he would be more than worthy of his current ADP (RB11 in round 3), but I can’t pull the trigger that early. I prefer to target RB coming off a torn ACL in the second year as opposed to the first year. I prefer Najee Harris in that part of the draft.


WR

Pump – Mike Williams, LAC

Underdog ADP: WR25

DH Ranking: WR16



Mike Williams was the flavor of the month in 2022, as he was often being drafted ahead of Keenan Allen in drafts. After he was plagued by injuries, he is now being drafted as WR25. I am of the belief that Justin Herbert being banged up was a big reason why the Chargers passing game underperformed. Kellen Moore when bring a more prolific passing attack, which will boost all Chargers pass catchers. Mike Williams deserves to be in the group of the other high-end team WR2s (Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins), but I will gladly take the 2 round ADP discount to acquire him.


Dump – Brandon Aiyuk, SF

Underdog ADP: WR28

DH Ranking: WR39



This 49ers team is arguably the most talented team in the league outside of the QB position. All signs point to Brock Purdy being the week 1 starter, but I am just not a believer. I don’t believe he will be able to sustain a top 3 RB, a top 6 TE, and 2 top 30 Fantasy WRs. Brandon Aiyuk is the weapon most reliant on downfield targets, which is not a strength of Purdy, making him the odd man out in this offense in terms of potential for elite fantasy production.


TE


Pump – Chig Okonkwo, TEN

Underdog ADP: TE12

DH Ranking: TE9



One of the toughest things to do when building my projections was finding out how to distribute target share among the Tennessee Titans Pass catchers outside of Treylon Burks. 151 targets are up for grabs with the departure of Robert Woods and Austin Hooper, and Treylon Burks won’t get all of them. Chig Okonkwo is the most 2nd most talented pass catcher and reaching a 20% target share is within his range of outcomes. If I pass on Travis Kelce in round 1, Chig Okonkwo is my favorite among the double digit round Tes to target.


Dump – Dalton Kincaid, BUF

Underdog ADP: TE11

DH Ranking: TE25



Every year, fantasy managers will tell you that rookie TEs do not provide fantasy value, and yet every year there is a rookie TE that we think will buck that trend. Dalton Kincaid is that guy this year. Dawson Knox is still on the team, so he is not even the TE1 on his own team, yet he is getting drafted 4 rounds ahead of Knox. I was not as high on Gabriel Davis last season; thus, I am more than pleased with his current 7th round ADP as the Bills #2 pass catcher. Don’t fall for the rookie TE trap this year.



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