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Draft Season is here! Bestball Leagues are flowing! The NFL Preseason is upon us. Drafthustle is here to get you ready to dominate your drafts and get to the money and the trophies! This is part of a series I am titling "Bop or Flop". For each team, I will be choosing one player I am high on (Bop), and one player I am avoiding in fantasy drafts at cost for the 2023 season (Flop). You can check out my rankings here!
Chicago Bears
BOP – Khalil Herbert, RB
FantasyPros ADP – RB37, #99 Overall
DH Rank – RB30
Khalil Herbert was a solid RB2 whenever David Montgomery was out last season, and there is no David Montgomery in 2023. D’Onta Foreman doesn’t scare me in the least. Roschon Johnson could be a problem later in the season. Khalil Herbert was every efficient last season averaging 5.7 Yards per carry. I expect that to regress a bit because he will receive more work, but not too much. He is a steal as a RB4 in the 9th round.
FLOP – D.J. Moore, WR
FantasyPros ADP – WR22, #54 Overall
DH Rank – WR26
I love the talent of D.J. Moore, and I love that he is out of Carolina and will have the best QB he has had in his career. My only concern is the passing volume of the Bears offense. I currently have them projected at 48% passing rate on the season, and that is a big jump from the 40% pass rate they had in 2022. If I can get him as WR3 in round 6 in a stack with Justin Fields, I would be thrilled, but his price right now is a bit too high for me.
Detroit Lions
BOP – David Montgomery, RB
FantasyPros ADP – RB30, #75 Overall
DH Rank – RB26
David Montgomery has been a popular mid round pick among the Fantasy Football community, and I am in lock step with them. He was very underwhelming with the Chicago Bears because the offensive line was so poor. He is now in Detroit who has a top 5 offensive line, and he will step into the Jamaal Williams role. I do not expect 17 rushing TDs, but double-digit touchdowns is a realistic expectation, and that is great value for an RB3/Flex in the 7th round.
FLOP – Sam LaPorta, TE
FantasyPros ADP – TE17, #155 Overall
DH Rank – TE24
Rookie TEs have been all the rage this draft season, and I think it will be a trap as it always is. Sam LaPorta should be the top TE in the Detroit Lions offense, but that did not amount to much in 2022. Prior to Hockenson getting traded mid-season, he scored more than 10 .5 PPR points only once in 7 games. In his current ADP range, I am usually building my WR and RB depth. Whatever opportunity LaPorta gets to start the year will be gone once Jameson Williams returns after his suspension. Don’t fall for the jig!
Green Bay Packers
BOP – Aaron Jones, RB
FantasyPros ADP – RB17, #39 Overall
DH Rank – RB14
Aaron Jones has been the model of consistency among RBs for the last few years. He has finished as RB13 or better every year since 2019. After trading away Aaron Rodgers, the Packers should be leaning more on the run game, which helps the rushing floor of Aaron Rodgers. He has had at least 47 catches in the last 4 years, so that makes in viable in all formats. If Aaron Jones is my RB1 in the 4th round, I will be more than happy with that.
FLOP – Romeo Doubs, WR
FantasyPros ADP – WR57, #141 Overall
DH Rank – WR60
Romeo Doubs was the talk of fantasy twitter last off season, and he disappointed. This year, the Packers drafted 3 rookie WRs and 2 rookie TEs, which tells me that they are searching for a second receiving weapon behind Christian Watson. Jayden Reed is in line to be the slot WR in Green Bay and has an ADP 4 rounds later than Doubs. Outside of bestball leagues, Doubs is not my radar this fantasy season.
Minnesota Vikings
BOP – Alexander Mattison, RB
FantasyPros ADP – RB21, #56 Overall
DH Rank – RB16
Alexander Mattison is finally getting the chance that we have been waiting for with the departure of Dalvin Cook. He was always fantasy relevant when he filled in for Cook. His ADP in round 5 is about where I would take him, but there are a few RBS going above him that I prefer Mattison over, namely Breece Hall and Jahmyr Gibbs.
FLOP – T.J. Hockenson, TE
FantasyPros ADP – TE3, #42 Overall
DH Rank – TE3
T.J. Hockenson deserves to be the TE3 based on his role in the Vikings offense and the expected pass volume. I just can’t get jiggy with taking him in the 4th round. I have him in the same tier as Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, and George Kittle, who has much more reasonable ADPs. He has fallen to the 6th round in some recent bestball drafts I have been in, but I don’t expect that to happen in managed leagues.
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